Roll the clock back to April 2020, and major financial economists and property market commenters were sounding the alarm. The very best-case scenario was a 5 percent drop in property values by the end of the year, and most were in the 10 percent to 15 percent range. They forewarned the Covid-19 stimulated recession would trim tens of thousands of pounds off the value of Tameside homes.
Yet the Tameside property market seemed not to get the memo on that, and now as we find ourselves at the end of 2020 and the worst of lockdown restrictions appear to be passed, vaccinations on the way, and the economy starting to grow, Tameside property prices seem to be doing quite well.
Before I answer that, it reminded me of what the Treasury said in 2016 about a leave vote on the Brexit referendum. The considered opinion of the Treasury was house prices would drop by 18 percent if the country voted to leave the EU, so let us see what that would have done to Tameside house prices if that had taken place and then what exactly has happened in the last four and half years:
| Average Value 2016 | Predicted Drop by The Treasury because of Brexit | Average Value Today | Uplift in Value in Last 4.5 Years | % Increase since Brexit Vote |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tameside Detached | £259,323 | £212,645 | £264,432 | £5,109 | 1.97% |
| Tameside Semi-detached | £161,013 | £132,031 | £188,312 | £27,299 | 16.9% |
| Tameside Terraced / Town House | £119,642 | £98,107 | £133,421 | £13,779 | 11.5% |
| Tameside Flats & Apartments | £98,112 | £80,452 | £108,690 | £10,578 | 10.7% |
Well for most of us, owning a property is about having somewhere to live rather than an investment. Nevertheless, once a homeowner is on the proverbial ‘property ladder’, it cannot be denied that it is eternally beneficial to know, as a homeowner, that you have made a healthy investment in your home and that the value will rise to alleviate the ache of trading up market — or down market when you retire.
Those Tameside homeowners who own semi-detached homes would have made an average of £27,299 profit, a rise of 16.9% or a weekly profit of £116.66 — calculated between the price they would have paid in the summer of 2016 and the price they would sell for today. Looking at the weekly profit for all property types in Tameside since the Brexit vote:
- Tameside detached homes weekly profit of £21.83 per week
- Tameside semi-detached homes weekly profit of £116.66 per week
- Tameside terraced homes/town houses weekly profit of £58.88 per week
- Tameside apartments weekly profit of £45.20 per week
Whilst it is no surprise the property market boom was inspired by the Chancellor’s Stamp Duty holiday, this is not exclusively the Chancellor’s achievement. The three ‘D’s have been with us throughout 2020, Covid or no Covid (Debt, Divorce, and Death), together with a huge shift in the way Tameside homeowners see their homes. With us cooped up during the lockdown and working from our dining room tables, the want and need of Tameside people to have a home with an extra bedroom to work from, together with a garden has been one of the most challenging this year; hence the rise in demand.
So, what of 2021? It’s true that the country will have high unemployment, yet at the same time, we have ultra-low interest rates and for the last 20 years, on average we have only built 150,000 households per year as a nation, but needed 300,000 per year to keep up with immigration, people living longer and changes in the way households are made up (compared to the Millennium).
Covid was a black swan event and the fallout from that, I believe, has changed Tameside peoples’ lives and their lifestyles, especially how they see their home. Instead of making predictions, nothing can get away from property market fundamentals, which have driven price booms on the back of high demand for homes and low supply (i.e. properties coming onto the market) and price crashes on the back of over-supply and low demand.
Only time will tell if, in 2021 the Tameside property market will see a flood of properties coming to the market because of debt or the demand for larger homes continues to rise unabated.
As always, if you’re looking to discuss property in Tameside, whether you’re a client of mine or not, and seeking a second opinion, I’d be more than happy to have a chat. What do you have to lose? 07709 505 442.
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